The Model Says: “All of the above”

Nov 20, 2022 | Blog, News

The UC Berkeley Terner Center for Housing Innovation has released a new Housing Policy Dashboard that enables researchers and policymakers to simulate various policy scenarios for increasing California’s housing supply. 

Accompanied with a paper by Casey et al (2022) that models development “proformas” (the financial calculations that determine a building’s viability) with parcel-level data from the City of Los Angeles, the dashboard’s initial findings offer major implications for housing policy reform.

Key takeaways:

  1. While six different policy scenarios were modeled, none of them were enough to meet the city’s state-mandated goals under the Regional Housing Need Allocation (RHNA). Thus, “no individual policy change will be sufficient to make up for the city’s significant housing shortfall.” 
  2. However, some policies likely do affect the amount and location of new housing construction. For example, streamlining the permitting process would increase the amount of new housing in high-resource areas, while increasing density citywide would increase the amount of new housing built near public transit.
  3. Eliminating parking requirements can encourage more new housing projects without necessarily incentivizing larger projects.